Dijon 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Gaston-Gérard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dijon are significantly better at Stade Gaston-Gérard than their overall form suggests.
PAU (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAU have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dijon have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, PAU in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dijon 0W, PAU 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
PAU — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 49% versus PAU 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 51% | PAU 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.05 xG and PAU 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.891 / defence 0.917 | PAU attack 0.759 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.035. Data: 65 Dijon games / 65 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 41% | Draw 36% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | PAU 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAU's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 20% | PAU 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 41% | Draw 36% | PAU 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Dijon 1.05 / PAU 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.891 / def 0.917 | PAU attack 0.759 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Dijon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.72
PAU xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs PAU kick off?
Dijon vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs PAU?
Dijon 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Dijon vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs PAU part of?
Dijon vs PAU is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 41% chance of winning, PAU a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dijon and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | PAU 2W.
What form are Dijon and PAU in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. PAU (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dijon's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.76x) against Dijon's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
41%
2.42
36%
2.80
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dijon xG
Total xG
1.78
0.72
PAU xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Dijon and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dijon and 0.72 for PAU, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 19W 16D 30L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 21W 16D 28L from 65 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Dijon against 1.22 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (13W 8D 12L).
On the road, PAU have gone 7W 9D 17L from 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and PAU in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 19W 16D 30L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while PAU have gone 21W 16D 28L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or PAU away?
Dijon's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.42 PPG; PAU away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, PAU have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Dijon 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 42%, PAU 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dijon) and 36% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games; PAU in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Dijon's recent matches and 48% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dijon's recent games and 36% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and PAU tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, PAU in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Dijon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Dijon 0-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.05 xG and PAU 0.72 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dijon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against PAU attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 41% | Draw 36% | PAU 23%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 51%, PAU 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.12 PPG, PAU 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.