Dijon 2-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Dijon against 1.20 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dijon 0W, Le Havre 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 46% versus Le Havre 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 46% | Le Havre 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.03 xG and Le Havre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.888 / defence 1.171 | Le Havre attack 1.005 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Data: 28 Dijon games / 28 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 34% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 36%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 30% | Le Havre 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 34% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Dijon 1.03 / Le Havre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.888 / def 1.171 | Le Havre attack 1.005 / def 1.185 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Le Havre xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Le Havre kick off?
Dijon vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Le Havre?
Dijon 2 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Dijon vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Le Havre part of?
Dijon vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 34% chance of winning, Le Havre a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dijon and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Dijon and Le Havre in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.89) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.00x) against Dijon's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.33
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.10
1.08
Le Havre xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dijon and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dijon and 1.08 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 10W 4D 14L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 10W 11D 7L from 28 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Dijon against 1.46 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 5W 6D 2L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.96 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 10W 4D 14L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 7L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.54 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Dijon or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Le Havre in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 46%, Le Havre 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dijon) and 38% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Le Havre in 46%; Le Havre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dijon's recent matches and 38% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dijon's recent games and 38% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dijon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Le Havre 2-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.03 xG and Le Havre 1.08 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Le Havre attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 34% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 36%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 46%, Le Havre 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.21 PPG, Le Havre 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.