Dijon 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Caen at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dijon are significantly better at Stade Gaston-Gérard than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dijon at 1.10 PPG versus Caen's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dijon, 0 for Caen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Dijon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Caen in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 50% versus Caen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 50% | Caen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.14 xG and Caen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.885 / defence 1.278 | Caen attack 0.932 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Dijon games / 26 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 36% | Draw 30% | Caen 35%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Caen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 40% | Caen 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 36% | Draw 30% | Caen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Dijon 1.14 / Caen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.885 / def 1.278 | Caen attack 0.932 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Dijon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Caen xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Caen kick off?
Dijon vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Caen?
Dijon 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is Dijon vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Caen part of?
Dijon vs Caen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 36% chance of winning, Caen a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dijon and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Caen 0W.
What form are Dijon and Caen in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Caen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dijon's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.39
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.25
1.11
Caen xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dijon and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dijon and 1.11 for Caen, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon's recent record stands at 9W 3D 14L from 26 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 10L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.15 PPG, Caen on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dijon have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 2W 7D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Caen in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 9W 3D 14L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Caen have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Caen away?
Dijon's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.42 PPG; Caen away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Dijon or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Caen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dijon's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Caen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Caen 2-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Caen?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Caen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 50%, Caen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dijon) and 33% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Caen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dijon's recent matches and 58% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dijon's recent games and 33% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Dijon edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.14 xG and Caen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Caen attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 36% | Draw 30% | Caen 35%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 50%, Caen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Caen's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.15 PPG, Caen 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.