Concarneau 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Concarneau welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Concarneau stand at 1W 2D 3L from 6 Ligue 2 matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Concarneau have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Concarneau have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Saint Etienne are 0.67 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.83), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Concarneau in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 33% versus Saint Etienne 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 33% | Saint Etienne 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.86 xG and Saint Etienne 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.672 / defence 1.105 | Saint Etienne attack 1.186 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.034. Concarneau's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Concarneau games / 44 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 23% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 48%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Saint Etienne 2.08. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Concarneau 33% | Saint Etienne 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 23% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Concarneau 0.86 / Saint Etienne 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.672 / def 1.105 | Saint Etienne attack 1.186 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Saint Etienne xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Concarneau vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Saint Etienne?
Concarneau 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Concarneau vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Concarneau vs Saint Etienne part of?
Concarneau vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 23% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Concarneau and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and Saint Etienne in?
Concarneau (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.67x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
23%
4.35
29%
3.42
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.21
1.36
Saint Etienne xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
6%
16.87
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.8 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.36 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Concarneau have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 1W 2D 3L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Concarneau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
Venue Form
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Concarneau are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 0.67 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Saint Etienne 1-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Concarneau at 33%, Saint Etienne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Concarneau and 67% for Saint Etienne.
On the defensive side: Concarneau keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Concarneau have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Concarneau's games and 100% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Concarneau's recent games and 67% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Concarneau 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Concarneau 0-1 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 0.86 xG and Saint Etienne 1.36 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Concarneau fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.67 / defence 1.10 against Saint Etienne attack 1.19 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 23% | Draw 29% | Saint Etienne 48%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 33%, Saint Etienne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.