Concarneau 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rodez at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Rodez encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Concarneau welcome Rodez to Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Concarneau have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Concarneau have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Concarneau are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rodez stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Rodez's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Rodez's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Concarneau's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Concarneau, 1 for Rodez and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Concarneau 0–2 Rodez — a Rodez win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Concarneau trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Rodez trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 35% versus Rodez 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 41% | Rodez 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Concarneau surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.12 xG and Rodez 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.836 / defence 1.344 | Rodez attack 1.152 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rodez's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 34 games and Rodez's last 71.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 24% | Draw 24% | Rodez 52%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.20 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 1.92. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Concarneau's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 50% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 60% (last 10 away games).

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