Concarneau 2-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel d'Ornano plays host to Concarneau versus Paris FC in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau at Stade Michel d'Ornano this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Paris FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Concarneau, 1.60 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Concarneau lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Paris FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 29% versus Paris FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 38% | Paris FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.89 xG and Paris FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.797 / defence 1.199 | Paris FC attack 0.958 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Concarneau's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Concarneau games / 62 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 26% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Paris FC 2.22. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Concarneau 50% | Paris FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 26% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Concarneau 0.89 / Paris FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.797 / def 1.199 | Paris FC attack 0.958 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Paris FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Paris FC kick off?
Concarneau vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Paris FC?
Concarneau 2 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Concarneau vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Concarneau vs Paris FC part of?
Concarneau vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 26% chance of winning, Paris FC a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Concarneau and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Concarneau and Paris FC in?
Concarneau (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Concarneau's attack rating (0.80) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.96x) against Concarneau's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
26%
3.84
29%
3.47
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.15
1.26
Paris FC xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.26 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Concarneau have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 9W 4D 11L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 9W 6D 9L from 24 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Concarneau against 1.38 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Concarneau are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Concarneau have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.27 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Concarneau or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Paris FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
1
Draws
1
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Paris FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Paris FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Concarneau 2-2 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 46%, Paris FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Concarneau) and 27% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 36% of games; Paris FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Concarneau's recent matches and 46% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Concarneau vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Concarneau's recent games and 27% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Concarneau and Paris FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau and Paris FC finished level at 2-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 0.89 xG and Paris FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Concarneau beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Paris FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 26% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 45%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 38%, Paris FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 1.29 PPG, Paris FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.