Concarneau 0-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Concarneau and Caen meet at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Concarneau (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Concarneau have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Caen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Caen are 1.40 PPG clear of Concarneau in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.90 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.77 xG and Caen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.715 / defence 0.960 | Caen attack 1.099 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Concarneau's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Concarneau games / 40 Caen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Concarneau 25% | Draw 31% | Caen 44%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Caen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 25% | Draw 31% | Caen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Concarneau 0.77 / Caen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.715 / def 0.960 | Caen attack 1.099 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Caen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Caen xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Caen kick off?
Concarneau vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Caen?
Concarneau 0 - 2 Caen.
Where is Concarneau vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Concarneau vs Caen part of?
Concarneau vs Caen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 25% chance of winning, Caen a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Concarneau and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and Caen in?
Concarneau (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L. Caen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.71x the league average against Caen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (1.10x) against Concarneau's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
25%
4.05
31%
3.23
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Concarneau xG
Total xG
1.91
1.14
Caen xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 16.9 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.14 for Caen, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Concarneau come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Concarneau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Caen sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Concarneau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Concarneau are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Caen's attacking output running into Concarneau's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Concarneau have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Caen in 0%.
Defensively: Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Caen in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Caen in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Caen have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Concarneau or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Caen in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Caen?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Caen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Caen 1-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Concarneau's recent matches and 0% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Concarneau vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Concarneau's recent games and 0% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Caen tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Caen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Concarneau 0-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 0.77 xG and Caen 1.14 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Caen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.71 / defence 0.96 against Caen attack 1.10 / defence 0.88, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 25% | Draw 31% | Caen 44%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 0%, Caen 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Concarneau shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.