Concarneau 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Amiens at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Concarneau face Amiens.

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Fixture Analysis

Concarneau welcome Amiens to Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Concarneau have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Concarneau's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Amiens — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Concarneau) versus 1.20 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Concarneau have won 0, Amiens 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Concarneau 1–1 Amiens — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Concarneau in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Amiens in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 39% versus Amiens 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 45% | Amiens 26%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Concarneau surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Amiens have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.97 xG and Amiens 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 1.018 / defence 1.641 | Amiens attack 0.842 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.641 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 31 games and Amiens's last 69.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 22% | Draw 27% | Amiens 51%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.61 | Draw 3.64 | Amiens 1.97. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Concarneau 70% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 30% (last 10 away games).

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