Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Guingamp at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Guingamp's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 2, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 56% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 41% | Guingamp 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.917 / defence 1.000 | Guingamp attack 0.975 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Clermont Foot games / 67 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Clermont Foot 1.34 / Guingamp 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.917 / def 1.000 | Guingamp attack 0.975 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Guingamp xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Guingamp kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Clermont Foot 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp part of?
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Clermont Foot and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.92x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
38%
2.67
30%
3.28
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.56
1.22
Guingamp xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.22 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.01 PPG on a 16W 21D 31L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 27W 14D 27L from 68 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.01 PPG, Guingamp on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (7W 13D 13L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 6D 16L from 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.46 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 16W 21D 31L in their last 68 games (1.01 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 27W 14D 27L in their last 68 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.03 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Guingamp?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 64%, Guingamp 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Clermont Foot) and 64% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Clermont Foot's games and 64% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 64% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Guingamp tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Guingamp attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 41%, Guingamp 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.01 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.