Caen 0-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Caen welcome Quevilly to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Caen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Caen, 0 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Caen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Caen in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 53% versus Quevilly 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 40% | Quevilly 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.96 xG and Quevilly 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.281 / defence 0.844 | Quevilly attack 0.670 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Caen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Caen games / 47 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 68% | Draw 20% | Quevilly 12%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Quevilly 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Caen (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 80% | Quevilly 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 68% | Draw 20% | Quevilly 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 42% | xG Caen 1.96 / Quevilly 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.281 / def 0.844 | Quevilly attack 0.670 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Caen (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Quevilly xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Quevilly kick off?
Caen vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Quevilly?
Caen 0 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Caen vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Quevilly part of?
Caen vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 68% chance of winning, Quevilly a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Caen and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Caen and Quevilly in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.28) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.94
12%
8.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Caen xG
Total xG
2.62
0.66
Quevilly xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
8.59
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
2%
60.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Caen and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Caen and 0.66 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Caen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 14D 16L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 12W 13D 22L from 47 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.38 PPG, Quevilly on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 5W 3D 14L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.91 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Quevilly away?
Caen's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.68 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 54%, Quevilly 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Caen) and 46% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Caen's recent matches and 32% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Caen's recent games and 46% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Quevilly tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.96 xG and Quevilly 0.66 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.28 / defence 0.84 against Quevilly attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 68% | Draw 20% | Quevilly 12%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 40%, Quevilly 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.38 PPG, Quevilly 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.