Caen 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Caen at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Caen welcome Laval to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's away record: 3W 1D 5L from 9 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Caen) versus 1.30 (Laval). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Caen, 1 for Laval and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Laval winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Caen trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Laval trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 53% versus Laval 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 37% | Laval 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.85 xG and Laval 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.126 / defence 0.930 | Laval attack 0.736 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.038. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Caen games / 19 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 64% | Draw 22% | Laval 14%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Laval 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Caen (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 40% | Laval 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 64% | Draw 22% | Laval 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Caen 1.85 / Laval 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.126 / def 0.930 | Laval attack 0.736 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Caen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Laval xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Laval kick off?
Caen vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Laval?
Caen 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Caen vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Laval part of?
Caen vs Laval is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 64% chance of winning, Laval a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Caen and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Laval?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 0 | Laval 1W.
What form are Caen and Laval in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Laval (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Caen's attack at 1.13x the league average against Laval's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.56
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Caen xG
Total xG
2.56
0.71
Laval xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
2%
46.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Caen and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Caen and 0.71 for Laval, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Laval?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Caen's recent record stands at 7W 7D 5L from 19 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 10L across 19 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.47 PPG, Laval on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Caen have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Caen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Laval's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.32 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Laval in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 7W 7D 5L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Laval have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Laval away?
Caen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 2.00 PPG; Laval away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Laval runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Laval have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Laval won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Caen's record when hosting Laval specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Caen
1
Draws
4
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Laval?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 1, Laval have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Caen 0-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 44%, Laval 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Caen) and 44% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Laval in 33%; Laval in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Caen's recent matches and 33% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Caen's recent games and 44% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Laval tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Laval in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Caen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 20, as Caen and Laval drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.85 xG and Laval 0.71 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Caen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against Laval attack 0.74 / defence 1.41, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 64% | Draw 22% | Laval 14%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 37%, Laval 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.47 PPG, Laval 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.