Boulogne 1-2 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade de la Libération to take on Boulogne. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 September 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 3W 0D 6L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 1W 0D 4L at Stade de la Libération — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RED Star FC 93 are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Boulogne in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 44% versus RED Star FC 93 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 56% | RED Star FC 93 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 0.59 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.651 / defence 1.241 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.280 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.251. Boulogne's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. RED Star FC 93's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Boulogne games / 41 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 10% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 70%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | RED Star FC 93 1.43. The model has a clear lean to RED Star FC 93 (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 40% | RED Star FC 93 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 10% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 39% | xG Boulogne 0.59 / RED Star FC 93 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.651 / def 1.241 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.280 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.99
RED Star FC 93 xG
39%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 September 2025 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Boulogne 1 - 2 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 10% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 70% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 in?
Boulogne (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.65x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
10%
9.97
19%
5.13
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.0%
Away win
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.58
1.99
RED Star FC 93 xG
9.97
10%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
1%
72.72
39%
2.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.99 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boulogne's recent record stands at 3W 0D 6L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 2L across 9 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RED Star FC 93 by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boulogne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Boulogne have managed 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 3W 2D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.67 PPG overall record — RED Star FC 93 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boulogne are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.60 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Boulogne or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Boulogne's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
2
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Boulogne 1-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 40%, RED Star FC 93 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Boulogne) and 40% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 60%; Boulogne have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Boulogne's recent matches and 40% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Boulogne's recent games and 40% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Boulogne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.59 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.99 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.65 / defence 1.24 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 10% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 70%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 56%, RED Star FC 93 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.