Bordeaux 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Dijon at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season.
Dijon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dijon trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 59% versus Dijon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 61% | Dijon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.00 xG and Dijon 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.899 / defence 0.777 | Dijon attack 0.870 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.179. Bordeaux's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 8 Bordeaux games / 46 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 39% | Draw 33% | Dijon 28%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Dijon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dijon's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 20% | Dijon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 39% | Draw 33% | Dijon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Bordeaux 1.00 / Dijon 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.899 / def 0.777 | Dijon attack 0.870 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dijon xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Dijon kick off?
Bordeaux vs Dijon kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Dijon?
Bordeaux 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Bordeaux vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Dijon part of?
Bordeaux vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 39% chance of winning, Dijon a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bordeaux and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Dijon in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.00
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.79
0.80
Dijon xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.80 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 15D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (16W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.98 PPG, Dijon on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bordeaux's home form reads 5W 8D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Dijon in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 10W 15D 21L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Dijon have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Dijon away?
Dijon's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.05 PPG; Dijon away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
0
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Dijon 0-3 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Dijon?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 59%, Dijon 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bordeaux) and 54% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 32% of games; Dijon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bordeaux's games and 54% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bordeaux's recent games and 54% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Dijon tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dijon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.00 xG and Dijon 0.80 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.90 / defence 0.78 against Dijon attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 39% | Draw 33% | Dijon 28%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 61%, Dijon 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.98 PPG, Dijon 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.