Bordeaux 2-3 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bordeaux face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bastia travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bordeaux's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bastia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bordeaux at 1.60 PPG versus Bastia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bordeaux have won 1, Bastia 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Bordeaux 1–3 Bastia — a Bastia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bordeaux in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Bastia in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 43% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 43% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.37 xG and Bastia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.074 / defence 0.876 | Bastia attack 0.961 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 68 games and Bastia's last 69.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 45% | Draw 30% | Bastia 25%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.24 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 3.94. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 40% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 45% | Draw 30% | Bastia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Bordeaux 1.37 / Bastia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.074 / def 0.876 | Bastia attack 0.961 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bastia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Bastia kick off?
Bordeaux vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Bastia?
Bordeaux 2 - 3 Bastia.
Where is Bordeaux vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Bastia part of?
Bordeaux vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 45% chance of winning, Bastia a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bordeaux and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Bordeaux vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 68 games and Bastia's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.33
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.35
0.98
Bastia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.98 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 31W 18D 19L from 68 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 24L across 68 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.63 PPG, Bastia on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 19W 9D 5L from their last 33 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.24 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
Bordeaux (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Bordeaux vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Bastia in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 31W 18D 19L in their last 68 games (1.63 PPG), while Bastia have gone 27W 17D 24L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Bastia away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bastia have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Bastia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 1, Bastia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Bordeaux 2-3 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 39%, Bastia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bordeaux) and 39% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 46% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bordeaux's recent games and 39% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 67% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Bordeaux 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Bordeaux 2-3 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.37 xG and Bastia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Bastia attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 45% | Draw 30% | Bastia 25%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Bastia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 43%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.63 PPG, Bastia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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