Bordeaux 3-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bordeaux 1W, Annecy 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 38% versus Annecy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 40% | Annecy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / defence 1.045 | Annecy attack 1.007 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.121. Data: 50 Bordeaux games / 51 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 42% | Draw 27% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bordeaux 30% | Annecy 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 42% | Draw 27% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Bordeaux 1.41 / Annecy 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / def 1.045 | Annecy attack 1.007 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Annecy xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Annecy kick off?
Bordeaux vs Annecy kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Bordeaux 3 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Bordeaux vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Annecy part of?
Bordeaux vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bordeaux and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Annecy in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.01x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.72
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
Annecy xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.18 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bordeaux come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 13D 14L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (14W 18D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Annecy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bordeaux's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (4W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.08 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 23W 13D 14L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while Annecy have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Annecy away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Annecy away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 42%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bordeaux) and 62% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bordeaux's recent games and 62% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Annecy tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Annecy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Annecy 3-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.18 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 42% | Draw 27% | Annecy 31%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 40%, Annecy 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.