Bastia 3-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 0L across 9 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Quevilly have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus Quevilly 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 26% | Quevilly 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.21 xG and Quevilly 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.950 / defence 0.964 | Quevilly attack 0.903 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.062. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Bastia games / 19 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 43% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Quevilly 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 44% | Quevilly 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 43% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Bastia 1.21 / Quevilly 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.950 / def 0.964 | Quevilly attack 0.903 / def 1.320 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Bastia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Quevilly xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Quevilly kick off?
Bastia vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Quevilly?
Bastia 3 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Bastia vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Quevilly part of?
Bastia vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 43% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bastia and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Bastia and Quevilly in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.95) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.90x) against Bastia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.42
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.93
Quevilly xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bastia and 0.93 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 4W 8D 7L from 19 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Bastia against 1.26 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 2W 7D 0L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.05 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Quevilly away?
Bastia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.44 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Bastia or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Quevilly in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Quevilly?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 44%, Quevilly 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Bastia and 56% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Quevilly in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bastia's recent matches and 56% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Bastia's recent games and 56% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Quevilly tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bastia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Quevilly 3-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.21 xG and Quevilly 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Quevilly attack 0.90 / defence 1.32, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 43% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 28%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 26%, Quevilly 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.05 PPG, Quevilly 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.