Auxerre 4-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Auxerre take on Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Auxerre welcome Niort to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 outings — a 1.83 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 0.83 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Auxerre have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.83 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Niort stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Ligue 2 matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.83 vs 1.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Niort in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 67% versus Niort 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 67% | Niort 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.02 xG and Niort 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.126 / defence 1.088 | Niort attack 0.796 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 0.718 / away 1.141. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Auxerre games / 6 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 36% | Niort 31%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Niort 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 33% | Niort 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 36% | Niort 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Auxerre 1.02 / Niort 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.126 / def 1.088 | Niort attack 0.796 / def 1.257 | league avg home 0.718 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Niort xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Niort kick off?
Auxerre vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Niort?
Auxerre 4 - 0 Niort.
Where is Auxerre vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Niort part of?
Auxerre vs Niort is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, Niort a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Auxerre and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Niort in?
Auxerre (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Niort (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Niort's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
36%
2.75
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.00
0.99
Niort xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.99 for Niort, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Niort, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Niort heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Niort's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Auxerre's scoring rate against Niort's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Niort in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Niort
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Niort in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Niort have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Niort away?
Auxerre's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.33 PPG; Niort away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Niort in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Niort runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Niort have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Niort 0-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Niort?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 33%, Niort 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Auxerre and 67% for Niort. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Niort in 33%; Auxerre have failed to score in 33% of games; Niort in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Auxerre's recent matches and 67% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Auxerre's matches and 67% of Niort's.
Do Auxerre and Niort tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Niort in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Niort 4-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.02 xG and Niort 0.99 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Niort landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.13 / defence 1.09 against Niort attack 0.80 / defence 1.26, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 33% | Draw 36% | Niort 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 67%, Niort 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.