Annecy 2-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Valenciennes at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Annecy's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Valenciennes — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Valenciennes's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 0 for Valenciennes and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Annecy 0–0 Valenciennes — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Valenciennes trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Valenciennes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Valenciennes 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.26 xG and Valenciennes 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.863 / defence 1.064 | Valenciennes attack 0.653 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Valenciennes's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Annecy's last 68 games and Valenciennes's last 68.
Result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 23%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.17 | Draw 3.26 | Valenciennes 4.28. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Valenciennes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Annecy 1.26 / Valenciennes 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.863 / def 1.064 | Valenciennes attack 0.653 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Annecy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Valenciennes xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Valenciennes FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Valenciennes kick off?
Annecy vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Annecy 2 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Annecy vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Valenciennes part of?
Annecy vs Valenciennes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 46% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Annecy and Valenciennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Annecy vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.86) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 68 games and Valenciennes's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.26
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Valenciennes xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Valenciennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Annecy and 0.81 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 19W 21D 28L from 68 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 26D 30L across 68 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.15 PPG, Valenciennes on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 12W 10D 12L from their last 34 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 5W 9D 20L across their last 34 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.87 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Valenciennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Valenciennes Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 21D 28L in their last 68 games (1.15 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 12W 26D 30L in their last 68 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Valenciennes away?
Annecy's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.35 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Annecy or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Valenciennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Valenciennes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 2, Valenciennes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Valenciennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Annecy 2-1 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Valenciennes?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 41%, Valenciennes 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Annecy) and 38% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Valenciennes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Valenciennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Valenciennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Annecy's recent matches and 35% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Valenciennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Annecy's recent games and 38% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Valenciennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Annecy's recent matches and 59% of Valenciennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Valenciennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Valenciennes 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.26 xG and Valenciennes 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Valenciennes attack 0.65 / defence 1.25, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 46% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 23%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Valenciennes 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.15 PPG, Valenciennes 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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