Annecy vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 3W 2D 5L at Parc des Sports — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAU are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Annecy, 3 for PAU and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
PAU trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 58% | PAU 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.05 xG and PAU 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.877 / defence 1.127 | PAU attack 1.107 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.339. Data: 45 Annecy games / 45 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 24% | Draw 25% | PAU 52%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 1.92. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 24% | Draw 25% | PAU 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Annecy 1.05 / PAU 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.877 / def 1.127 | PAU attack 1.107 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: PAU (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.67
PAU xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs PAU kick off?
Annecy vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs PAU part of?
Annecy vs PAU is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 24% chance of winning, PAU a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Annecy and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
Record (9 meetings): Annecy 4W | Draws 2 | PAU 3W.
What form are Annecy and PAU in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. PAU (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.88) and PAU's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
24%
4.21
25%
4.08
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.72
1.67
PAU xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
4%
22.41
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Annecy and 1.67 for PAU, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 8D 17L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.44 PPG from 45 outings (18W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.51 PPG, PAU on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.42 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and PAU in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 20W 8D 17L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while PAU have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; PAU away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Annecy or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and PAU runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Annecy
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when PAU 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and PAU?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 64%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Annecy) and 64% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; PAU in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Annecy's games and 54% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Annecy's matches and 64% of PAU's.
Do Annecy and PAU tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, PAU in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.