Annecy 1-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Grenoble travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grenoble — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, Grenoble 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Grenoble in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Annecy, 3 for Grenoble and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Grenoble trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Grenoble 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 40% | Grenoble 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.67 xG and Grenoble 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.140 / defence 0.884 | Grenoble attack 1.004 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.163. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Annecy games / 55 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 24% | Grenoble 23%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Grenoble 4.35. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Grenoble 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 24% | Grenoble 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Annecy 1.67 / Grenoble 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.140 / def 0.884 | Grenoble attack 1.004 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Grenoble xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Grenoble kick off?
Annecy vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Annecy 1 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Annecy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Grenoble part of?
Annecy vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, Grenoble a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Annecy and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
Record (7 meetings): Annecy 2W | Draws 2 | Grenoble 3W.
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.14x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.12
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.71
1.03
Grenoble xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
22.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Annecy and 1.03 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 23W 13D 19L from 55 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 22L across 55 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.49 PPG, Grenoble on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grenoble's away record stands at 7W 4D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.20 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 13D 19L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 19W 14D 22L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Grenoble away?
Annecy's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.74 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Annecy or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Grenoble in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Grenoble runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Annecy
3
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Grenoble have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 44%, Grenoble 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Annecy) and 59% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Grenoble in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Annecy's recent matches and 52% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Annecy's recent games and 59% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Grenoble tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Grenoble share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 22, as Annecy and Grenoble drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.67 xG and Grenoble 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Grenoble attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 24% | Grenoble 23%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 40%, Grenoble 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.49 PPG, Grenoble 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.