Amiens 0-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Amiens welcome Caen to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amiens at 1.00 PPG versus Caen's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Caen in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 43% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 43% | Caen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.03 xG and Caen 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.984 / defence 1.101 | Caen attack 0.918 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Data: 14 Amiens games / 14 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 30% | Caen 35%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Caen 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 43% | Caen 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 30% | Caen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Amiens 1.03 / Caen 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.984 / def 1.101 | Caen attack 0.918 / def 1.151 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Caen xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Caen kick off?
Amiens vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Caen?
Amiens 0 - 0 Caen.
Where is Amiens vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Caen part of?
Amiens vs Caen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 35% chance of winning, Caen a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Caen in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Caen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.98x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.30
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.06
1.03
Caen xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Amiens and 1.03 for Caen, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 7D 5L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 0.93 PPG, Caen on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amiens's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Caen in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Caen have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Caen away?
Caen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.00 PPG; Caen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Amiens or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Caen in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Caen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Amiens's record when hosting Caen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Amiens
3
Draws
4
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Caen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Amiens 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Caen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 33%, Caen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Amiens and 17% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Caen in 33%; Amiens have failed to score in 50% of games; Caen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amiens's recent games and 17% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Caen tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Caen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Caen finished level at 0-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.03 xG and Caen 1.03 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Caen attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 35% | Draw 30% | Caen 35%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 43%, Caen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Caen's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 0.93 PPG, Caen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.