Ajaccio 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 39%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajaccio vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Rodez at Stade Michel-Moretti in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ajaccio haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ajaccio at Stade Michel-Moretti this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade Michel-Moretti than their overall form suggests.
Rodez — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rodez away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Rodez's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Ajaccio's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 1 for Rodez and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 37% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 37% | Rodez 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.33 xG and Rodez 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.985 / defence 0.943 | Rodez attack 1.075 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.161. Data: 38 Ajaccio games / 38 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 39% | Draw 29% | Rodez 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 50% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 39% | Draw 29% | Rodez 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Ajaccio 1.33 / Rodez 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.985 / def 0.943 | Rodez attack 1.075 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rodez xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Rodez kick off?
Ajaccio vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Ajaccio vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Rodez part of?
Ajaccio vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 39% chance of winning, Rodez a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ajaccio and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Ajaccio 2W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Rodez in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.44
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
Rodez xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.18 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. Ajaccio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 11L across 38 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. Rodez haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 1.21 PPG, Rodez on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rodez's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.61 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Pre-Season
Rodez
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Rodez in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Rodez have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Rodez away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.89 PPG; Rodez away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rodez in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ajaccio
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Rodez 1-2 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Rodez?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 47%, Rodez 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Ajaccio) and 58% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ajaccio's games and 68% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajaccio vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Ajaccio's recent games and 58% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Rodez tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rodez in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.33 xG and Rodez 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Rodez attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 39% | Draw 29% | Rodez 32%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 37%, Rodez 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.21 PPG, Rodez 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.