Ajaccio 0-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Ajaccio welcome Quevilly to Stade François Coty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajaccio have posted 4W 1D 0L at Stade François Coty — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ajaccio have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Quevilly trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 30% versus Quevilly 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 20% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.11 xG and Quevilly 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.015 / defence 0.733 | Quevilly attack 0.850 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.061. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajaccio's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 10 Ajaccio games / 10 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 44% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 19%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Quevilly 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 20% | Quevilly 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 44% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Ajaccio 1.11 / Quevilly 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.015 / def 0.733 | Quevilly attack 0.850 / def 1.269 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Quevilly xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Quevilly kick off?
Ajaccio vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Ajaccio 0 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Ajaccio vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Quevilly part of?
Ajaccio vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 44% chance of winning, Quevilly a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ajaccio and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Quevilly in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.01x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
44%
2.28
37%
2.71
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.78
0.66
Quevilly xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.66 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 5W 4D 1L from 10 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Quevilly's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Quevilly in 60%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Quevilly away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.60 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Quevilly in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Quevilly runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajaccio's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ajaccio 1-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 20%, Quevilly 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Ajaccio and 40% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Quevilly in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 60% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ajaccio's recent games and 40% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Quevilly tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Ajaccio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Ajaccio 0-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.11 xG and Quevilly 0.66 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.01 / defence 0.73 against Quevilly attack 0.85 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 44% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 19%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 20%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Quevilly winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.