Ajaccio 0-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ajaccio welcome Niort to Stade François Coty. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 5W 3D 0L from 8 outings — a 2.25 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade François Coty, Ajaccio have gone 4W 0D 0L this season (4 games, 3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.25 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Niort — All Games: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Ajaccio are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.87 PPG ahead (2.25 vs 1.38). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Niort trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 38% | Niort 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 25% | Niort 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.61 xG and Niort 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.245 / defence 0.791 | Niort attack 0.731 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajaccio's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 8 Ajaccio games / 8 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 59% | Draw 31% | Niort 11%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 1.69 | Draw 3.23 | Niort 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Ajaccio (59%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 25% | Niort 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 59% | Draw 31% | Niort 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Ajaccio 1.61 / Niort 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.245 / def 0.791 | Niort attack 0.731 / def 1.561 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Niort xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Niort kick off?
Ajaccio vs Niort kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Niort?
Ajaccio 0 - 0 Niort.
Where is Ajaccio vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Niort part of?
Ajaccio vs Niort is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 59% chance of winning, Niort a 11% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ajaccio and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Niort in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-3D-0L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Niort (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (1.25) and Niort's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
59%
1.71
31%
3.25
11%
9.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.23
0.61
Niort xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
9.38
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
47.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.61 for Niort, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 5W 3D 0L from 8 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Niort heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.25 PPG overall — Ajaccio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Niort's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Niort in 25%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Niort in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Niort in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 5W 3D 0L in their last 8 games (2.25 PPG), while Niort have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Niort away?
Ajaccio's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 3.00 PPG; Niort away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Niort in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Niort 0-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Niort?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 25%, Niort 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ajaccio) and 75% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 50% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ajaccio's recent games and 75% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Niort tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Niort in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ajaccio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 9, as Ajaccio and Niort drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.61 xG and Niort 0.61 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ajaccio fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Niort attack 0.73 / defence 1.56, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 59% | Draw 31% | Niort 11%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 25%, Niort 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Niort (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.