Toulouse 1-2 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Lyon meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lyon have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lyon have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lyon are 0.70 PPG clear of Toulouse in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lyon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 56% and Lyon 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 60% | Lyon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.31 xG and Lyon 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.017 / defence 1.195 | Lyon attack 1.218 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.280. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Toulouse games / 68 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 26% | Draw 24% | Lyon 50%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Lyon 2.00. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Lyon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 26% | Draw 24% | Lyon 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Toulouse 1.31 / Lyon 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.017 / def 1.195 | Lyon attack 1.218 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Lyon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Lyon xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lyon kick off?
Toulouse vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Lyon.
Where is Toulouse vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lyon part of?
Toulouse vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 26% chance of winning, Lyon a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Toulouse and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 1 | Lyon 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Lyon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.22x) against Toulouse's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
26%
3.81
24%
4.14
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.17
1.86
Lyon xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
16%
6.43
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
4%
24.52
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.86 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 34W 15D 19L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 30W 19D 19L from 68 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Toulouse against 1.60 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.00 PPG from 34 outings (20W 8D 6L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 12W 9D 13L from 34 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.66 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 66%.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lyon in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 34W 15D 19L in their last 68 games (1.72 PPG), while Lyon have gone 30W 19D 19L in their last 68 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lyon away?
Toulouse's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.00 PPG; Lyon away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lyon in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Lyon have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Toulouse 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 56%, Lyon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Toulouse) and 56% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Toulouse's games and 62% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of Lyon's.
Do Toulouse and Lyon tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lyon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.31 xG and Lyon 1.86 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against Lyon attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 26% | Draw 24% | Lyon 50%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 60%, Lyon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.72 PPG, Lyon 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.