Strasbourg 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 57%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Strasbourg vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Auxerre travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 January 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Strasbourg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's home record at Stade de la Meinau: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Strasbourg are significantly better at Stade de la Meinau than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Strasbourg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Strasbourg, 1 for Auxerre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Strasbourg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Strasbourg trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Auxerre trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Strasbourg 67% and Auxerre 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 61% | Auxerre 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 2.01 xG and Auxerre 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.984 / defence 0.942 | Auxerre attack 0.907 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.298. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Strasbourg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Strasbourg games / 15 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 57% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 19%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Strasbourg (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 80% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 57% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Strasbourg 2.01 / Auxerre 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.984 / def 0.942 | Auxerre attack 0.907 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Auxerre xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Auxerre kick off?
Strasbourg vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Strasbourg 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Strasbourg vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Auxerre part of?
Strasbourg vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 57% chance of winning, Auxerre a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Strasbourg and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Strasbourg 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Strasbourg and Auxerre in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.17
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.11
Auxerre xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
3%
39.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.11 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 14W 14D 21L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 11L across 49 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 9W 6D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.82 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 26W 12D 11L in their last 49 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Auxerre away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.50 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Strasbourg and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2025, when Strasbourg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Strasbourg
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Auxerre?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 67%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Strasbourg) and 54% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Strasbourg's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Strasbourg's matches and 54% of Auxerre's.
Do Strasbourg and Auxerre tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Auxerre 3-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 2.01 xG and Auxerre 1.11 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Auxerre attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 57% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 19%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Auxerre 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Strasbourg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.