Stade Brestois 29 3-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Strasbourg travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Stade Brestois 29. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stade Brestois 29 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Strasbourg have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stade Brestois 29 at 1.30 PPG versus Strasbourg's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Strasbourg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 44% versus Strasbourg 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 44% | Strasbourg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.968 / defence 0.887 | Strasbourg attack 1.052 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.375. Strasbourg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Stade Brestois 29 games / 46 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 51% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 26%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Strasbourg 3.85. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Strasbourg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 51% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.88 / Strasbourg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.968 / def 0.887 | Strasbourg attack 1.052 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Strasbourg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Stade Brestois 29 3 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 51% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg?
Record (6 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 2W | Draws 2 | Strasbourg 2W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 0.97x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.44
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.16
1.28
Strasbourg xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
4%
24.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.28 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 21W 11D 14L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg's form line: 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stade Brestois 29 are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Strasbourg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (11W 8D 4L).
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 3W 8D 12L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.28 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 70%.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Strasbourg away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.78 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
3
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Strasbourg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 39%, Strasbourg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Stade Brestois 29) and 56% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Strasbourg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 70% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 56% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Strasbourg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Strasbourg 3-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.88 xG and Strasbourg 1.28 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Strasbourg attack 1.05 / defence 1.29, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 51% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 26%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 44%, Strasbourg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Strasbourg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.