Reims 0-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Reims's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Reims, 0.90 for Saint Etienne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Reims, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 56% versus Saint Etienne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 50% | Saint Etienne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.65 xG and Saint Etienne 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.804 / defence 0.939 | Saint Etienne attack 0.704 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.412. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Reims games / 32 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 54% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 21%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 4.76. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Saint Etienne 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 54% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 1.65 / Saint Etienne 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.804 / def 0.939 | Saint Etienne attack 0.704 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Reims (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Saint Etienne xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Reims vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Reims 0 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Reims vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Saint Etienne part of?
Reims vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 54% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 2W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Reims and Saint Etienne in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.80x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.70x) against Reims's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.08
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Reims xG
Total xG
2.58
0.93
Saint Etienne xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
24.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Reims and 0.93 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 17D 28L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.33 PPG from 66 outings (25W 13D 28L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Reims against 1.33 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 11W 7D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (8W 7D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.24 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 13D 28L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Saint Etienne away?
Reims's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.25 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Reims or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reims
0
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 53%, Saint Etienne 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Reims) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 31%; Reims have failed to score in 31% of games; Saint Etienne in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Reims's recent matches and 41% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.65 xG and Saint Etienne 0.93 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Saint Etienne attack 0.70 / defence 1.42, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 54% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Saint Etienne 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.21 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.