Reims 2-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reims face Rennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Rennes at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reims stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reims's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Reims are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rennes — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rennes have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.00 PPG versus Rennes's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Reims, 3 for Rennes and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Reims 1–3 Rennes — a Rennes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 55% versus Rennes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Rennes 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reims surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Rennes have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.04 xG and Rennes 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.806 / defence 0.825 | Rennes attack 1.002 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Data: built from Reims's last 71 games and Rennes's last 71.
Result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 30% | Rennes 38%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.08 | Draw 3.38 | Rennes 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 50% (last 10 home games) | Rennes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 30% | Rennes 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Reims 1.04 / Rennes 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.806 / def 0.825 | Rennes attack 1.002 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Rennes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Rennes xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Rennes FAQs
What time does Reims vs Rennes kick off?
Reims vs Rennes kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Rennes?
Reims 2 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Reims vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Rennes part of?
Reims vs Rennes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 32% chance of winning, Rennes a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reims and Rennes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Reims vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 71 games and Rennes's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.38
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reims xG
Total xG
2.19
1.15
Rennes xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Rennes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reims and 1.15 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims come into this having played 71 games, going 24W 23D 24L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.61 PPG from 71 outings (33W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.34 PPG, Rennes on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reims's home form reads 15W 9D 11L across their last 35 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 35 away games (11W 11D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.70 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
Reims (Home) vs Rennes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
❓ Reims vs Rennes Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Rennes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 24W 23D 24L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Rennes have gone 33W 15D 23L in their last 71 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Rennes away?
Reims's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.54 PPG; Rennes away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Reims or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rennes in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won Rennes 3-0 Reims.
Reims's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Rennes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 4, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Rennes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2025: Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 49%, Rennes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Reims) and 49% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rennes in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Rennes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Rennes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Reims's recent matches and 60% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Rennes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Reims's recent games and 49% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Rennes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Reims's recent matches and 69% of Rennes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Rennes 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.04 xG and Rennes 1.15 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.81 / defence 0.82 against Rennes attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 32% | Draw 30% | Rennes 38%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Rennes 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rennes's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.34 PPG, Rennes 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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