Reims 0-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris Saint Germain make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Reims have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 57% versus Paris Saint Germain 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 45% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.79 xG and Paris Saint Germain 3.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.913 / defence 1.223 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.710 / defence 0.588. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.488. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.588 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.710 — the away xG of 3.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Reims games / 47 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 6% | Draw 11% | Paris Saint Germain 83%. Fair-value odds: Reims 16.67 | Draw 9.09 | Paris Saint Germain 1.20. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.90 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 70% | Paris Saint Germain 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 6% | Draw 11% | Paris Saint Germain 83% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 52% | xG Reims 0.79 / Paris Saint Germain 3.11 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.913 / def 1.223 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.710 / def 0.588 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Reims xG
Expected Goals
3.11
Paris Saint Germain xG
52%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reims 0 - 0 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 6% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 83% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reims and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.91) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.59), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.71x) against Reims's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 3.11.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.8%), 1-3 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
6%
16.81
11%
8.71
83%
1.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Reims xG
Total xG
3.90
3.11
Paris Saint Germain xG
16.81
6%
Home win
8.71
11%
Draw
1.21
83%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
4%
22.49
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.9 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Reims and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Reims and 3.11 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims's recent record stands at 12W 17D 18L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 34W 9D 4L across 47 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reims have managed 5W 8D 10L from 23 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 14W 5D 4L across 23 trips, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.51 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 34W 9D 4L in their last 47 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.00 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Reims or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 4-0 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
5
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 56%, Paris Saint Germain 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 65% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 35%; Reims have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Reims's recent matches and 52% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Reims's matches and 65% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Reims and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Paris Saint Germain finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.79 xG and Paris Saint Germain 3.11 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain landed 3.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.71 / defence 0.59, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 6% | Draw 11% | Paris Saint Germain 83%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 45%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.