Reims 0-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reims face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris Saint Germain make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Reims have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Paris Saint Germain's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain away from home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Reims, 2.30 for Paris Saint Germain — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Reims 1–1 Paris Saint Germain — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Paris Saint Germain 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 47% | Paris Saint Germain 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.15 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.944 / defence 1.004 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.426 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.035. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.426, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Reims's last 49 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 49.
Result probabilities: Reims 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.76 | Draw 3.19 | Paris Saint Germain 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Reims 1.15 / Paris Saint Germain 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.944 / def 1.004 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.426 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Paris Saint Germain xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reims 0 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reims and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reims vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.94) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.43x) against Reims's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 49 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.76
31%
3.19
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Reims xG
Total xG
2.63
1.48
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reims and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Reims and 1.48 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims's recent record stands at 18W 17D 14L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 34W 7D 8L across 49 games — 2.22 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reims have managed 11W 6D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 17W 4D 3L across their last 24 away games, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Paris Saint Germain in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Reims vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 17D 14L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 34W 7D 8L in their last 49 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.62 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Reims or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Reims on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
5
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Paris Saint Germain 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Reims and 71% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 58% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Reims's matches and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Reims and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Reims's recent matches and 75% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Reims 0-3 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.15 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.48 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Reims fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.43 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 47%, Paris Saint Germain 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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