Reims 0-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Metz travel to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to take on Reims. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 January 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 3W 3D 3L at Stade Auguste-Delaune II — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Reims) versus 1.00 (Metz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Reims, 0 for Metz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 55% versus Metz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 35% | Metz 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.32 xG and Metz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.843 / defence 1.071 | Metz attack 0.709 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.235. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Reims games / 20 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 44% | Draw 32% | Metz 25%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Metz 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 44% | Metz 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 44% | Draw 32% | Metz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Reims 1.32 / Metz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.843 / def 1.071 | Metz attack 0.709 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Reims (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Metz xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Metz kick off?
Reims vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Metz?
Reims 0 - 1 Metz.
Where is Reims vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Metz part of?
Reims vs Metz is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 44% chance of winning, Metz a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Reims and Metz in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Metz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.84) and Metz's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.17
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Reims xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Metz xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Reims and 0.94 for Metz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 9D 6L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Metz sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.20 PPG, Metz on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reims's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.15 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz in 60%.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Metz in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Metz have gone 3W 7D 10L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Metz away?
Reims's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.33 PPG; Metz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reims or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Metz in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Reims's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reims
3
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Metz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2025, when Reims 1-3 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 44%, Metz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Reims) and 67% (Metz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 33% of games; Metz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Reims's recent matches and 56% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Reims's matches and 67% of Metz's.
Do Reims and Metz tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Metz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Reims 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.32 xG and Metz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Metz attack 0.71 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 44% | Draw 32% | Metz 25%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 35%, Metz 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.20 PPG, Metz 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.