Reims 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Reims welcome Lyon to Stade Auguste-Delaune II. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Reims have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lyon — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lyon's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.30 PPG versus Lyon's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reims, 0 for Lyon and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lyon trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Lyon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 36% | Lyon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.24 xG and Lyon 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.979 / defence 1.050 | Lyon attack 1.009 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.117. Data: 28 Reims games / 28 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 28% | Lyon 35%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Lyon 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Lyon 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 28% | Lyon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 1.24 / Lyon 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.979 / def 1.050 | Lyon attack 1.009 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Reims (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Lyon xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lyon kick off?
Reims vs Lyon kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lyon?
Reims 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Reims vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Lyon part of?
Reims vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 38% chance of winning, Lyon a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Lyon 0W.
What form are Reims and Lyon in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.64
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Reims xG
Total xG
2.42
1.18
Lyon xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Reims and 1.18 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 8W 11D 9L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 8L across 28 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.25 PPG, Lyon on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 4W 4D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.43 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lyon in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Lyon have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lyon away?
Reims's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.31 PPG; Lyon away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Reims or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lyon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Reims
4
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Lyon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 46%, Lyon 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Reims) and 46% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lyon in 31%; Reims have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Reims's recent matches and 54% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Reims's recent games and 46% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lyon tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Lyon in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Lyon finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.24 xG and Lyon 1.18 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Lyon attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 38% | Draw 28% | Lyon 35%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 36%, Lyon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.25 PPG, Lyon 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.