Nice 8-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nice host Saint Etienne at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nice have posted 4W 2D 4L at Allianz Riviera — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Nice) versus 1.20 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Nice, 0 for Saint Etienne and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 4–2 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Saint Etienne 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 40% | Saint Etienne 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.87 xG and Saint Etienne 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.957 / defence 0.896 | Saint Etienne attack 0.606 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.331. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Nice games / 4 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 63% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 12%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Nice (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 50% | Saint Etienne 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 63% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Nice 1.87 / Saint Etienne 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.957 / def 0.896 | Saint Etienne attack 0.606 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Nice (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Saint Etienne xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Nice vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Nice 8 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Nice vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Saint Etienne part of?
Nice vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 63% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nice and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Nice and Saint Etienne in?
Nice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
63%
1.59
25%
4.06
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Nice xG
Total xG
2.59
0.72
Saint Etienne xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
52.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Nice and 0.72 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 12L across 38 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.55 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 9W 5D 4L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 4D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.26 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 29%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Saint Etienne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Saint Etienne away?
Nice's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.78 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Nice or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Nice
1
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 5, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Saint Etienne?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nice 39% BTTS, Saint Etienne 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nice) and 39% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 50%; Saint Etienne in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nice's recent matches and 22% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nice's recent games and 39% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Saint Etienne 8-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.87 xG and Saint Etienne 0.72 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 6.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Saint Etienne attack 0.61 / defence 1.31, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 63% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 12%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 40%, Saint Etienne 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.55 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 8 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.