Nice 1-3 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nice host Lille at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Nice's home record at Allianz Riviera: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Lille — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Nice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nice have won 1, Lille 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with Nice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lille in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 36% versus Lille 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 47% | Lille 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.35 xG and Lille 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.959 / defence 0.992 | Lille attack 0.739 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.251. Data: 36 Nice games / 36 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 28% | Lille 25%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Lille 4.00. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Lille 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 28% | Lille 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Nice 1.35 / Lille 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.959 / def 0.992 | Lille attack 0.739 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Nice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lille xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Lille kick off?
Nice vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Lille?
Nice 1 - 3 Lille.
Where is Nice vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Lille part of?
Nice vs Lille is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 47% chance of winning, Lille a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nice and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Lille 0W.
What form are Nice and Lille in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lille (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lille's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.61
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Nice xG
Total xG
2.27
0.92
Lille xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nice and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nice and 0.92 for Lille, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Nice have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 19W 7D 10L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 13W 12D 11L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.78 PPG, Lille on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Lille have gone 6W 5D 7L from 18 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.19 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Lille in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 games (1.78 PPG), while Lille have gone 13W 12D 11L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Lille away?
Nice's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.89 PPG; Lille away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Nice or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lille in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Nice won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nice
4
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 4, Lille have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Lille 0-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Lille?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Lille 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nice) and 50% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nice's games and 61% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nice's recent games and 50% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Lille tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lille in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Nice 1-3 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.35 xG and Lille 0.92 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lille outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Lille attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 47% | Draw 28% | Lille 25%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Lille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 47%, Lille 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.78 PPG, Lille 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.