Montpellier 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Reims at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Reims encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Reims travel to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 to take on Montpellier in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Montpellier stand at 0W 0D 10L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Montpellier's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Montpellier are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Reims have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Reims away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Reims's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Montpellier have won 2, Reims 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Montpellier 2–4 Reims — a Reims win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Montpellier in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Reims in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 48% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 55% | Reims 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 0.90 xG and Reims 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.667 / defence 1.454 | Reims attack 0.752 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.424. Montpellier's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Reims's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.56. Montpellier's defence rating of 1.454 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reims's projected output up. Data: built from Montpellier's last 64 games and Reims's last 64.

Result probabilities: Montpellier 22% | Draw 26% | Reims 53%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 4.61 | Draw 3.92 | Reims 1.89. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Montpellier 60% (last 10 home games) | Reims 20% (last 10 away games).

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