Monaco 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Monaco at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monaco and Strasbourg meet at Stade Louis II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's home record at Stade Louis II: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Ligue 1 appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Strasbourg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Strasbourg — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 50% versus Strasbourg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 50% | Strasbourg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.58 xG and Strasbourg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.078 / defence 1.216 | Strasbourg attack 0.884 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.202. Data: 14 Monaco games / 14 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 42% | Draw 29% | Strasbourg 29%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Strasbourg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 57% | Strasbourg 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 42% | Draw 29% | Strasbourg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Monaco 1.58 / Strasbourg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.078 / def 1.216 | Strasbourg attack 0.884 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Monaco (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Strasbourg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Strasbourg kick off?
Monaco vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Strasbourg?
Monaco 1 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Monaco vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Strasbourg part of?
Monaco vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 42% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Monaco and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Strasbourg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monaco and Strasbourg in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Monaco's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Strasbourg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.88x) against Monaco's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.40
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.87
1.29
Strasbourg xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
6%
16.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Monaco and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Monaco and 1.29 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Strasbourg sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Monaco against 1.36 for Strasbourg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Monaco's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Strasbourg have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Strasbourg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.79 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Strasbourg away?
Monaco's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.67 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Monaco
2
Draws
2
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Strasbourg?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 6, Strasbourg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Strasbourg?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Strasbourg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Monaco) and 50% (Strasbourg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monaco's games and 67% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Monaco's matches and 50% of Strasbourg's.
Do Monaco and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 15, as Monaco and Strasbourg drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.58 xG and Strasbourg 1.29 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.08 / defence 1.22 against Strasbourg attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 42% | Draw 29% | Strasbourg 29%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 50%, Strasbourg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.36 PPG, Strasbourg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.