Monaco 3-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Monaco take on Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis II plays host to Monaco versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco's home record at Stade Louis II: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Ligue 1 appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Saint Etienne have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.83 for Monaco, 0.50 for Saint Etienne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monaco 50% and Saint Etienne 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 33% | Saint Etienne 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.04 xG and Saint Etienne 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.662 / defence 1.162 | Saint Etienne attack 0.736 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.413. Monaco's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Monaco games / 6 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 27% | Draw 37% | Saint Etienne 36%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Saint Etienne 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 33% | Saint Etienne 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 27% | Draw 37% | Saint Etienne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Monaco 1.04 / Saint Etienne 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.662 / def 1.162 | Saint Etienne attack 0.736 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Saint Etienne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Monaco vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Saint Etienne?
Monaco 3 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Monaco vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Saint Etienne part of?
Monaco vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 27% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Monaco and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monaco and Saint Etienne in?
Monaco (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.83 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.66x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.74x) against Monaco's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.65
37%
2.73
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.24
1.21
Saint Etienne xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Monaco and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Monaco and 1.21 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Monaco against 0.50 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Saint Etienne away?
Monaco's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 0.33 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Monaco go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 1-4 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Monaco
0
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-3 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Saint Etienne?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 33%, Saint Etienne 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Monaco and 67% for Saint Etienne.
On the defensive side: Monaco have failed to score in 67% of games; Saint Etienne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Monaco's recent matches and 67% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Monaco's recent games and 67% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Saint Etienne 3-1 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.04 xG and Saint Etienne 1.21 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against Saint Etienne attack 0.74 / defence 1.40, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 27% | Draw 37% | Saint Etienne 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 33%, Saint Etienne 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 0.83 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.