Monaco 4-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monaco and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Louis II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Louis II — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Monaco's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Monaco, 0 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 47% versus Clermont Foot 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 53% | Clermont Foot 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.99 xG and Clermont Foot 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.268 / defence 1.029 | Clermont Foot attack 0.706 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.235. Monaco carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Monaco games / 19 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 61% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 15%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Clermont Foot 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 60% | Clermont Foot 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 61% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Monaco 1.99 / Clermont Foot 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.268 / def 1.029 | Clermont Foot attack 0.706 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Monaco (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Clermont Foot xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Monaco vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Monaco 4 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Monaco vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Clermont Foot part of?
Monaco vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 61% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monaco and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Monaco and Clermont Foot in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.27x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.71x) against Monaco's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.21
15%
6.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.89
0.90
Clermont Foot xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.76
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
2%
49.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Monaco and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Monaco and 0.90 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco's recent record stands at 8W 5D 6L from 19 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 9L across 19 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.05 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 games (1.53 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Clermont Foot away?
Monaco's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.89 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Monaco have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 4-0 on 16 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 56%, Clermont Foot 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Monaco and 56% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Monaco's recent matches and 44% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Monaco's matches and 56% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Monaco and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Clermont Foot 4-0 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.99 xG and Clermont Foot 0.90 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against Clermont Foot attack 0.71 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 61% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 15%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 53%, Clermont Foot 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.