Marseille 2-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Marseille face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Orange Vélodrome plays host to Marseille versus Monaco in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Marseille's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Marseille's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monaco have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Marseille, 2 for Monaco and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Marseille 2–2 Monaco — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 59% versus Monaco 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 56% | Monaco 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 1.03 xG and Monaco 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 0.885 / defence 1.190 | Monaco attack 1.347 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.354. Monaco bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Marseille's projected output down. Monaco have an above-average attack rating of 1.347, which lifts their away xG to 2.17. Data: built from Marseille's last 46 games and Monaco's last 46.
Result probabilities: Marseille 17% | Draw 20% | Monaco 63%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 5.93 | Draw 5.02 | Monaco 1.58. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Marseille's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Marseille 60% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 17% | Draw 20% | Monaco 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Marseille 1.03 / Monaco 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 0.885 / def 1.190 | Monaco attack 1.347 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Monaco (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Monaco xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Marseille vs Monaco FAQs
What time does Marseille vs Monaco kick off?
Marseille vs Monaco kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Monaco?
Marseille 2 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Marseille vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Monaco part of?
Marseille vs Monaco is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 17% chance of winning, Monaco a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Marseille and Monaco will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Marseille vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Marseille's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.35x) against Marseille's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from Marseille's last 46 games and Monaco's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
17%
5.93
20%
5.02
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Marseille xG
Total xG
3.20
2.17
Monaco xG
5.93
17%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
11%
8.75
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
2%
51.90
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Marseille vs Monaco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Marseille and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Marseille and 2.17 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Marseille have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 20W 13D 13L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 28W 9D 9L from 46 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Marseille.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Marseille have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 22 home games (11W 8D 3L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 14W 4D 4L from their last 22 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Marseille are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.93 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Monaco
Blended
Marseille (Home) vs Monaco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Marseille
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Marseille vs Monaco Form FAQs
What form are Marseille and Monaco in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while Monaco have gone 28W 9D 9L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 1.86 PPG; Monaco away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Marseille or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Monaco in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Marseille and Monaco, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Monaco have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won Monaco 3-0 Marseille on 12 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Marseille have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Marseille
2
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Marseille vs Monaco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Monaco?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Marseille have won 3, Monaco have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Monaco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Monaco 2-0 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 54%, Monaco 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Marseille and 73% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Marseille keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Marseille vs Monaco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Marseille and Monaco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Marseille's games and 68% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Marseille and Monaco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Marseille's matches and 73% of Monaco's.
Do Marseille and Monaco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Marseille's recent matches and 77% of Monaco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Monaco 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Monaco 2-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.03 xG and Monaco 2.17 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Monaco attack 1.35 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 17% | Draw 20% | Monaco 63%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Marseille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 56%, Monaco 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.59. Form was overturned, with Marseille winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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