Lorient 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir to face Lorient in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lorient's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir this season.
Reims (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reims have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Lorient. A 1.70 PPG lead over Reims (2.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lorient have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Reims in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lorient lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Reims winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lorient — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Reims — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 56% versus Reims 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 50% | Reims 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 2.04 xG and Reims 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.239 / defence 0.953 | Reims attack 0.981 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.465. Data: 48 Lorient games / 48 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 53% | Draw 22% | Reims 25%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Reims 4.00. Lorient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lorient are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lorient if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lorient 70% | Reims 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 53% | Draw 22% | Reims 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Lorient 2.04 / Reims 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.239 / def 0.953 | Reims attack 0.981 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Lorient (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Reims xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Reims kick off?
Lorient vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Reims?
Lorient 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Lorient vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Reims part of?
Lorient vs Reims is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 53% chance of winning, Reims a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lorient and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Lorient 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are Lorient and Reims in?
Lorient (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Reims (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lorient's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.98x) against Lorient's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.52
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Lorient xG
Total xG
3.41
1.37
Reims xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
13%
7.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
3%
30.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Lorient and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Lorient and 1.37 for Reims, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lorient come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 13D 19L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (12W 18D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Lorient against 1.12 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lorient's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lorient are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.15 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Reims in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while Reims have gone 12W 18D 18L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Reims away?
Lorient's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.57 PPG; Reims away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lorient have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lorient
2
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Lorient have won 1, Reims have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Lorient 2-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 56%, Reims 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lorient) and 44% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 26% of games; Reims in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lorient's games and 61% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lorient vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lorient's recent games and 44% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Reims tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Reims in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lorient's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 11, as Lorient and Reims drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 2.04 xG and Reims 1.37 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lorient fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Reims attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 53% | Draw 22% | Reims 25%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 50%, Reims 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.27 PPG, Reims 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.