Lille 1-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Strasbourg meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Current Form
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Strasbourg (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Strasbourg have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lille, 1.80 for Strasbourg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lille 1W, Strasbourg 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lille goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 61% versus Strasbourg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Strasbourg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 0.94 xG and Strasbourg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.754 / defence 1.076 | Strasbourg attack 0.902 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.212. Lille's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Lille games / 33 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 29% | Draw 31% | Strasbourg 41%. Fair-value odds: Lille 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Strasbourg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Strasbourg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lille 50% | Strasbourg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 29% | Draw 31% | Strasbourg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Lille 0.94 / Strasbourg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.754 / def 1.076 | Strasbourg attack 0.902 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Strasbourg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Strasbourg kick off?
Lille vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Strasbourg?
Lille 1 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Lille vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Strasbourg part of?
Lille vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 29% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lille and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Strasbourg?
Record (1 meetings): Lille 1W | Draws 0 | Strasbourg 0W.
What form are Lille and Strasbourg in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lille's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Strasbourg's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.90x) against Lille's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
29%
3.51
31%
3.24
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lille xG
Total xG
2.12
1.18
Strasbourg xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lille and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lille and 1.18 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 12W 12D 9L from 33 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 7L across 33 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Lille against 1.70 for Strasbourg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 6W 7D 3L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 5W 7D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.67 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Strasbourg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 12W 12D 9L in their last 33 games (1.45 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 15W 11D 7L in their last 33 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Strasbourg away?
Lille's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.56 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Lille or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Strasbourg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 0-3 on 14 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
1
Draws
4
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Strasbourg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Strasbourg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lille 1-4 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Strasbourg?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 56%, Strasbourg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 38% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Strasbourg in 38%; Lille have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lille's games and 56% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lille's recent games and 38% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Strasbourg 1-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 0.94 xG and Strasbourg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Strasbourg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Strasbourg attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 29% | Draw 31% | Strasbourg 41%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Strasbourg 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Strasbourg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.45 PPG, Strasbourg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.