Lille 1-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Lille welcome Rennes to Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rennes — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.80 PPG, Rennes 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lille, 0 for Rennes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 65% versus Rennes 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 59% | Rennes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.77 xG and Rennes 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.317 / defence 1.233 | Rennes attack 1.066 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.396. Lille carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Lille games / 51 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 37% | Draw 23% | Rennes 40%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Rennes 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 80% | Rennes 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 37% | Draw 23% | Rennes 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Lille 1.77 / Rennes 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.317 / def 1.233 | Rennes attack 1.066 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Rennes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Rennes xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Rennes kick off?
Lille vs Rennes kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Rennes?
Lille 1 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Lille vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Rennes part of?
Lille vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 37% chance of winning, Rennes a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Lille and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Rennes?
Record (2 meetings): Lille 1W | Draws 1 | Rennes 0W.
What form are Lille and Rennes in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Rennes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.32x the league average against Rennes's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
37%
2.69
23%
4.39
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lille xG
Total xG
3.60
1.83
Rennes xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.84
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Lille and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lille and 1.83 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille come into this having played 51 games, going 21W 14D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.82 PPG from 51 outings (28W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.51 PPG, Rennes on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lille's home form reads 11W 8D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.16 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Rennes in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 21W 14D 16L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Rennes have gone 28W 9D 14L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Rennes away?
Lille's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.64 PPG; Rennes away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Lille or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Rennes in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lille's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
4
Draws
1
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Rennes have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Rennes 1-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Rennes?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lille at 64%, Rennes at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lille) and 56% (Rennes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lille's games and 72% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lille's matches and 56% of Rennes's.
Do Lille and Rennes tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rennes in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Rennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Rennes finished level at 1-1 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.77 xG and Rennes 1.83 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rennes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.32 / defence 1.23 against Rennes attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 37% | Draw 23% | Rennes 40%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 59%, Rennes 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.51 PPG, Rennes 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.