Estac Troyes 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stade Brestois 29 are 1.00 PPG clear of Estac Troyes in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Stade Brestois 29 in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 56% and Stade Brestois 29 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 44% | Stade Brestois 29 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.806 / defence 1.079 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.931 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.303. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Estac Troyes games / 18 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 29% | Stade Brestois 29 40%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Stade Brestois 29 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 67% | Stade Brestois 29 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 29% | Stade Brestois 29 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Estac Troyes 1.13 / Stade Brestois 29 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.806 / def 1.079 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.931 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Stade Brestois 29 xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 31% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stade Brestois 29's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.93x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.41
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.44
1.31
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.31 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 4W 4D 10L from 18 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 6L across 18 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stade Brestois 29 by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 games (0.89 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Stade Brestois 29's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.00 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Brestois 29 won 5-1 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Estac Troyes 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Estac Troyes, 100% for Stade Brestois 29 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Estac Troyes) and 67% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Estac Troyes's games and 100% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Estac Troyes's matches and 67% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 19, as Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.31 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 29% | Stade Brestois 29 40%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 44%, Stade Brestois 29 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.