Clermont Foot 0-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Nantes meet at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Nantes (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Clermont Foot's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Clermont Foot 0W, Nantes 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 55% versus Nantes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Nantes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.32 xG and Nantes 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.827 / defence 1.166 | Nantes attack 0.832 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.280. Data: 42 Clermont Foot games / 42 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 30% | Nantes 33%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Nantes 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Nantes lead the H2H ledger, but Clermont Foot carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Nantes 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 30% | Nantes 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Clermont Foot 1.32 / Nantes 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.827 / def 1.166 | Nantes attack 0.832 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Nantes xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Nantes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Nantes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 37% chance of winning, Nantes a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Clermont Foot and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nantes?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 2 | Nantes 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Nantes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.83x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.83x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.29
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.57
1.24
Nantes xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.24 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 17W 9D 16L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes's form line: 7W 17D 18L from 42 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Clermont Foot are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
On the road, Nantes have gone 2W 7D 11L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Nantes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 17W 9D 16L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Nantes have gone 7W 17D 18L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Nantes away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.50 PPG; Nantes away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nantes?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Nantes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Nantes 1-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 50%, Nantes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Clermont Foot) and 45% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 30% of games; Nantes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 50% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 45% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Nantes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nantes in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantes defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.32 xG and Nantes 1.24 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Nantes attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 30% | Nantes 33%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Nantes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.