Angers 0-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Reims meet at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Angers have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stade Raymond-Kopa — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Reims (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reims have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Reims are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Angers 1W, Reims 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Angers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Reims — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 59% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 48% | Reims 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.93 xG and Reims 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.748 / defence 1.291 | Reims attack 0.793 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.112. Angers's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Angers games / 27 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 30% | Draw 30% | Reims 40%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Reims 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Angers 50% | Reims 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 30% | Draw 30% | Reims 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Angers 0.93 / Reims 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.748 / def 1.291 | Reims attack 0.793 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Reims (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Reims xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Reims kick off?
Angers vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Reims?
Angers 0 - 1 Reims.
Where is Angers vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Reims part of?
Angers vs Reims is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 30% chance of winning, Reims a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Angers and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Reims 0W.
What form are Angers and Reims in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Angers's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.79x) against Angers's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
30%
3.36
30%
3.34
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Angers xG
Total xG
2.07
1.14
Reims xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.3 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Angers and 1.14 for Reims, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Angers's recent record stands at 7W 8D 12L from 27 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 9L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Angers against 1.19 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Angers have managed 5W 1D 7L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Reims in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Reims have gone 7W 11D 9L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Reims away?
Angers's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.23 PPG; Reims away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Reims have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Reims 0-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 46%, Reims 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Angers) and 38% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 31% of games; Reims in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Angers's recent matches and 62% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Angers's recent games and 38% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Reims tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reims in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Angers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Angers 0-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.93 xG and Reims 1.14 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Angers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Reims attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 30% | Draw 30% | Reims 40%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 48%, Reims 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.07 PPG, Reims 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.