Angers 0-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Monaco meet at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Angers's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Monaco (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Monaco away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Angers, 1.40 for Monaco — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Monaco, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2024, ended Angers 1–0 Monaco — a Angers win.
Monaco have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 46% versus Monaco 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 41% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.21 xG and Monaco 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.739 / defence 1.275 | Monaco attack 0.975 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.390. Angers's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Angers's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monaco's projected output up. Data: built from Angers's last 25 games and Monaco's last 59.
Result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.84 | Draw 4.00 | Monaco 2.04. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Monaco 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 50% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Angers 1.21 / Monaco 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.739 / def 1.275 | Monaco attack 0.975 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Monaco xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Monaco FAQs
What time does Angers vs Monaco kick off?
Angers vs Monaco kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Monaco?
Angers 0 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Angers vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Monaco part of?
Angers vs Monaco is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 26% chance of winning, Monaco a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Angers and Monaco will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Angers vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.97x) against Angers's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 25 games and Monaco's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
26%
3.84
25%
4.00
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Angers xG
Total xG
2.94
1.73
Monaco xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
21.64
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Monaco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Angers and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Angers and 1.73 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 59 games, going 26W 12D 21L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.88 PPG from 59 outings (33W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Angers against 1.88 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 16W 4D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (14W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.98 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Monaco
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Monaco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Angers vs Monaco Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Monaco in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 26W 12D 21L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Monaco have gone 33W 12D 14L in their last 59 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Monaco away?
Angers's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.79 PPG; Monaco away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Angers or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Monaco in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Angers and Monaco, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Monaco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Monaco?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 1, Monaco have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Angers and Monaco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Monaco 2-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 45%, Monaco 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Angers and 72% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Monaco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Monaco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Angers's games and 72% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Angers and Monaco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Angers's matches and 72% of Monaco's.
Do Angers and Monaco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Angers's recent matches and 79% of Monaco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.21 xG and Monaco 1.73 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Monaco attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 26% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 41%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.53 PPG, Monaco 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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