Angers 3-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lyon at 51%, yet in-form Angers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Angers vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Angers welcome Lyon to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ligue 1 matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.93 xG and Lyon 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Lyon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.824 / away 1.705. Data: 1 Angers games / 1 Lyon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Angers 17% | Draw 31% | Lyon 51%. Fair-value odds: Angers 5.88 | Draw 3.23 | Lyon 1.96. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Angers (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 17% | Draw 31% | Lyon 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Angers 0.93 / Lyon 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Lyon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.824 / away 1.705 • Poisson stance: Lyon (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Lyon xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Lyon kick off?
Angers vs Lyon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Lyon?
Angers 3 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Angers vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Lyon part of?
Angers vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 17% chance of winning, Lyon a 51% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Lyon in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Lyon (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
17%
5.74
31%
3.20
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Angers xG
Total xG
2.59
1.67
Lyon xG
5.74
17%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
30.40
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Angers and 1.67 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Angers have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lyon's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Angers are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lyon.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Angers's scoring rate against Lyon's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lyon in 100%.
Defensively: Angers have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Lyon in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Lyon have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Angers or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Lyon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Lyon won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
6
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Lyon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Angers 0-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Angers's recent matches and 100% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Angers's recent games and 0% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Lyon tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Lyon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Angers run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Lyon 3-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.93 xG and Lyon 1.67 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Lyon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Angers 17% | Draw 31% | Lyon 51%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Angers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 0%, Lyon 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Angers scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lyon managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.