Angers 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Angers face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Angers welcome Lyon to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers at Stade Raymond-Kopa this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lyon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Lyon's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Angers's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lyon have the better historical record — 6 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Angers.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Lyon winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lyon have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lyon trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 36% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 30% | Lyon 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.18 xG and Lyon 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.802 / defence 1.062 | Lyon attack 1.092 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.229. Data: 61 Angers games / 61 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 31% | Draw 26% | Lyon 43%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Lyon 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Angers 40% | Lyon 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 31% | Draw 26% | Lyon 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Angers 1.18 / Lyon 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.802 / def 1.062 | Lyon attack 1.092 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Lyon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lyon xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Lyon kick off?
Angers vs Lyon kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Lyon?
Angers 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Angers vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Lyon part of?
Angers vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 31% chance of winning, Lyon a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Angers and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lyon?
Record (7 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Lyon 6W.
What form are Angers and Lyon in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.80x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.83
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Angers xG
Total xG
2.60
1.43
Lyon xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Angers and 1.43 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Angers have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 19W 11D 31L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon's form line: 31W 11D 19L from 61 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lyon are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (11W 4D 15L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.74 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Lyon in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 19W 11D 31L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Lyon have gone 31W 11D 19L in their last 61 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.23 PPG; Lyon away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Angers or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lyon in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Lyon won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
6
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Lyon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Angers 0-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 40%, Lyon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Angers) and 57% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lyon in 33%; Angers have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Angers's recent matches and 60% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Angers's recent games and 57% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Lyon tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lyon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Angers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 28, as Angers and Lyon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.18 xG and Lyon 1.43 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Angers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Lyon attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 31% | Draw 26% | Lyon 43%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.