Angers 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Raymond Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Le Havre (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Angers. A 0.80 PPG lead over Le Havre (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Angers lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Angers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 47% versus Le Havre 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 42% | Le Havre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.54 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.897 / defence 1.194 | Le Havre attack 0.844 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.307. Data: 19 Angers games / 53 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Angers 50% | Le Havre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Angers 1.54 / Le Havre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.897 / def 1.194 | Le Havre attack 0.844 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Angers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Le Havre xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Le Havre kick off?
Angers vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Le Havre?
Angers 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Angers vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Le Havre part of?
Angers vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 40% chance of winning, Le Havre a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Angers and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Angers and Le Havre in?
Angers (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.90x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.84x) against Angers's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Angers xG
Total xG
2.86
1.32
Le Havre xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Angers and 1.32 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Angers have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 10D 18L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 11W 12D 30L from 53 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Angers are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (16W 3D 7L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 3W 10D 13L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.91 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 25W 10D 18L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Le Havre away?
Angers's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.96 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Angers or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Le Havre in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Angers
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
From 5 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 46%, Le Havre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Angers) and 46% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Le Havre in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Angers's recent matches and 50% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Angers's recent games and 46% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Le Havre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Le Havre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.54 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Le Havre attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 42%, Le Havre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.